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There is a curious but under-examined school of debate on Ukraine, which argues against the conventional wisdom that Kyiv can't perform miracles; on the contrary, it is terrified that it can, including in Crimea. A fair representation of this school is here.

I think a lot of the pessimism and skepticism we're seeing in the U.S. press in particular -- based on administration briefings, almost always from the NSC -- insists Ukraine cannot because there is real anxiety that it will. One journalist friend told me recently some of his sources are privately worried of a rout -- of the Russians -- and that this will complicate efforts led by the Sullivan faction to pressure Zelensky into doing a deal.

As usual with U.S. foreign policy, a kind of schizophrenia is at play. Actively pining for a stalemate while sending enough kit and trainers such that Ukraine might put an end to that contingency. Saying we are with Kyiv until the end, but quietly striving to define that end on our own terms. Etc.

Catastrophic Success: What if the Ukrainian Counteroffensive Achieves More than Expected? - Modern War Institute