Xbox |OT|

[Ryuu96]

Idas Said:

The deal is again in a very, very bad position.

Now the decision from the EC is critical again. If the EC blocks it, it’s done. If they approve it, there is still a tiny bit of hope. An approval from China would help too (but who knows what to expect now) :S

At the same time, the FTC is obviously going to the admin court in August because there is no way to negotiate an agreement now.

On the other hand, if MS goes to the CAT to appeal the decision from the CMA, the appeal fails (totally possible) and they are still committed to this acquisition, maybe they’ll have to start thinking about ringfencing its Xbox UK operations. I didn’t see it as a feasible solution for the case (it has been used used in mergers in the banking sector), but it could be a last resort to avoid the UK blocking the acquisition. I still think that it’s unlikely to work due to the global nature of the business, but maybe they’ll have to assess the possibility now.

Finally, the outside date of the merger agreement has to be renegotiated now because the FTC and CMA appeals will require at least an extra year. So, if MS doesn’t pull out in the next few weeks, I guess that they’ll extend it until mid - late 2024.

I think that appealing to the CAT makes sense in this case due to the rationale of the prohibition, but will MS have enough patience for all the trouble that lies ahead?

We’ll see!