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haxxiy said:

That's all straight from TSMC, even the wafer cost of +25% on 5 nm. So regardless of how good Blackwell is, you'll be paying more per a similarly sized chip.

Personally, I'd expect something like a 50% improvement on the 4090 for $2000 for the flagship and the same-ish TDP (although with a higher actual power consumption).

Edit - if Nvidia is going for Samsung, don't mind much these estimates then. Samsung's 3GAE is less dense than TSMC's 3N and their nodes tend to be a little worse overall, but beyond that it's hard to compare both in terms of cost and performance.

My comment was in regards to your density and performance increase guesses, not the waffer costs. After all, the article claims that Nvidia will restructure the SM, which should influence both those parameters.

Captain_Yuri said:

I believe Nvidia is going Samsung this time around so that's one thing to keep in mind whiling attempting to judge it. I do think that while flagship prices will be higher, the rest of the stack will either be lower or similarly priced as Lovelace but with more performance. After the failure of the 4080 in terms of sales, I highly doubt Nvidia is going to attempt the 80 series at $1200 again. Mix that with lower demand with consumer GPUs due to high prices and economic recession and going Samsung which is supposed to be cheaper than TSMC, I think there's a chance that some of the GPUs will get restructured accordingly.

Given what's stated in the article, Mr. leather jacket already went to TMSC to secure 3nm wafers so, unless Nvidia has decided to split their chips between both TSMC and Samsung (for example going with the former for the bigger and more expensive parts, leaving the rest for Samsung), we have conflicting rumors. Which one to believe?

Also, the 4080 was a failure, true, but that doesn't mean much for the next generation. Nvidia could simply price the 4080 at $1000 instead of $1200 while leaving the rest untouched. It's unlikely, of course, because if the chips are more expensive to manufacture, Nvidia will charge more for them, plain and simple.