| haxxiy said: It could be like this for a while if next generation is on 5/4nm again. Even if GPU manufacturers snatch some 3nm silicon there is little cost-benefit to be gained (some 30% more expensive wafers for a half-node logic worth of shrinking). Best-case scenario in terms of value would probably be like a Radeon 8800/8900 retailing for some $900 and matching the 4090 - a whopping ~25% performance per value increase over the 6800/4070 in some two years time... |
If I had to make a wild guess Nvidia will stay cutting edge with 3nm and AMD as well (kinda have to, to stay competitive). Though going 3nm means even more expensive GPU's unless both camps want to take a smaler cut from sales.
I'm going to be a bit more optimistic and say that the 8900XT(X) will beat the 4090 by at least 10-15%. At least in raster with similar RT performance and be priced $1k again. With the 8800 XT just below 4090 at $750. The reason I say this is because AMD cards don't sell in the upper mid tier (like the 7900XT) without being significantly cheaper than Nvidia equivelants. Not even going to guess RTX 5000 cost since that'll be even more depressing lol. But hey at least performance gains should be crazy good with the 5090.
Another spanner in the works is Intel and Battlemage Q1/Q2 next year. Assuming it hits 4080 performance at $600-700. That would be decent card next year and maybe even a okay higher end card even by the time RTX 5000 and RX 8000 series are out.
Last edited by hinch - on 31 March 2023
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