Approval by the Brussels-based regulator with a formal remedy giving rivals access to popular video games, including Activision's Call of Duty, would be a reasonable enough outcome given commission decisions in recent complex mergers to accept non-divestiture remedies. Think Google/Fitbit and LSEG/ReYnitiv.
But at this stage of the Microsoft/Activision review, an EC determination to accept Microsoft's licensing offer and approve the transaction would appear to be premature at best. At worst, such a conclusion could represent an abuse of process.
Microsoft hasn't yet offered a formal remedy to the commission. If the company does submit an offer, as expected, it must do so by midnight on March 16. The remedy would then be sent for third-party feedback through a market test. Only at that point would the commission's competition department be able to deYnitively conclude whether the deal should be approved.
Even so, The Capitol Forum is aware of influential voices within the EC that believe the deal should be approved with non-divestiture conditions. That view may well end up being correct, but an important and indispensable part of the EC process must first play out.
Meanwhile, Microsoft last week participated in a "response hearing" in London at the Competition and Markets Authority. The UK watchdog has set out various ways the company could attempt to address misgivings about the Activision merger, including asset divestitures and an access remedy. All these options are said to have been discussed at last week's meeting, and Microsoft is said to have been buoyed by the amount of time the regulator spent discussing the access remedy option. The CMA, though, is obliged to consider each remedy it has proffered.
Still, the UK authority remains a staunch defender of its position that behavioural remedies should only be accepted in the most exceptional circumstances, putting the Activision deal at significant risk of being blocked.
So Microsoft is more confident due to the amount of time the CMA spent discussing behavioural remedies with them, interesting.
Is it a coincidence that CMA has revealed positive opinions from 6 developers this week?
This is the second journalist with reputable information stating that European Commission will approve as well.
