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konnichiwa said:

Sales are one thing (and sales will hurt thanks to gamepass for starfield on consoles) but critically I could see it go both ways. Divinity beat Fallout 4 metacritic wise.

Well Game Pass is certainly a factor but I'm pretty sure Baldur's Gate 3 on Xbox vs Starfield on Xbox will come out as Starfield being the winner in sales, even with Game Pass, firstly because it's a Bethesda title so unless there's an extremely high attach rate on Game Pass, I don't think it will cannibalise Starfield's sales enough to cause BG3 to outsell it, especially because Larian/BG is niche on consoles.

Starfield will probably only have to do a few million on Xbox to outsell BG3 on Xbox, and they'll almost certainly have an "early access" premium release which I'll definitely be getting even having Game Pass. As for PlayStation...It doesn't really matter, Starfield isn't on PlayStation. PC...Starfield will be the winner, basically anywhere where Starfield is should outsell BG3.

Critically, I think Baldur's Gate 3 could beat Starfield...Not sure why Bethesda would care though, the consumers will flock to Starfield regardless. Like G2 said, Pentiment outscored most things last year but absolutely nobody will care about launching near it. Bethesda delayed Starfield for polish and likely doesn't give a single care about what game it launches near because they don't really need to unless it's CoD or a Rockstar title.

Diablo posed way more a threat than BG3 did but even then I think Starfield would have been fine.