Hoeg did not put a percentage on it be he said he still thinks the deal goes through with remedies.
Idas apparently said (though I cannot find it and I got tired of scrolling back through posts) before the recent EU news that he gave the deal a 25% chance of going through globally.
Most of the financial analysts still think it’s going to go through.
I am wondering what accounts for the wide variance of opinions here. A theory I saw on twitter that I think has merit is that because this deal is so large and “not normal”, an extra political dimension has been introduced that is throwing previous precedents out the window. The FTC and CMA in particular have political motivations to at least appear as though they are being tough on tech.
I remain optimistic this deal goes through, and if the CMA accepts behavioral remedies then I think it’s virtually certain the FTC will be brought back to the negotiating table. I think regardless we will have a clear understanding of if this deal will happen by the end of April
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