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[Ryuu96]

Imaginedvl said:

Ryuu96 said:

Think ABK is said as being a good buy even if the deal fails, at least, I saw more than a few investor companies say that and with Diablo round the corner and $3bn from Microsoft, I'm not sure how to read their market value but I wouldn't necessarily assume it's doing well because Wall Street are positive about the report more than they're just positive about Activision-Blizzard.

As an investor I can tell you that ABK is NOT at all a good buy at 70+$ USD unless you believe the transaction will be approved. 
I personnaly buy it (and the market too) only because I believe the transaction will go through. If not, the stock will fall hard and will probably go around 50/55$ but not more. And there is no way it is going back to 70+ before a long time (which basically means that investors will lose a lot of money ;)).

The 3BN, while being good, is going to help for 4/5$ maybe on the stock price; not more. 

In short, only reason to buy Activision Stock right now (above 50$ I would say), is if you believe it will be approved. If not, you are basically throwing money in the trash bin :)

Hmm, I was going off a few articles in November/December.

Market Is Betting Activision Blizzard Acquisition Will Go Through (NASDAQ:ATVI) | Seeking Alpha

The expected volatility is quite moderate, suggesting that ATVI will not drop too precipitously even if the deal fails.

Activision Blizzard May Be A Buy, With Or Without Microsoft Deal (NASDAQ:ATVI) | Seeking Alpha

Yet, an expected $3 billion breakup fee and stronger 2023 operating forecast may make the stock an interesting buy idea right now. Weighing all the investment pros and cons from sliding 2022 game industry sales as the pandemic demand surge ends, to improving valuation variables on better estimated company comps next year, I am projecting the share price could easily trade as high as $90 to $100 by the end of 2023.

Activision Blizzard Stock: Strong Results And Microsoft Drama (NASDAQ:ATVI) | Seeking Alpha

If the deal falls through, the immediate market reaction would most likely be negative. But ATVI could still do well in the longer term, as it is rather inexpensive today and since growth has picked up again.

Buy Activision Because FTC Has Little Chance Of Blocking Merger | Seeking Alpha

Cushioning these blows is the fact that Microsoft will have to pay Activision a break-up fee of $3 billion. That would leave Activision with net cash of more than $10 billion. At a market cap of $60 billion, there is plenty management can do with the cash to make it up for shareholders.

The other reassuring factor is that the stock already seems to be pricing-in the merger not going through, so there might not be much downside at the current price. The stock fell 1.5% on Dec. 8 when reports came out that the FTC will block the deal. A survey from Seeking Alpha showed that 14 analysts believe the stock would be at $71 if the deal fails to go through, which isn't the worst risk-reward.

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Stock market changes very quickly though so I'll take your word for it as I don't know a thing about this whole stock market thing and I wouldn't want to encourage someone to make a bet with their money based on stuff that I post, Lol. I'm just going entirely on what some investors were saying back in December/November.

End of the day though, investors will know about as much as we do, so I'm not really with them on their confidence as the situation looks dire right now unless you believe that Microsoft is willing to divest Activision...Hoping that the CMA will accept Behavioural Remedies is a massive gamble but I hope that they do, Lol.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 February 2023