| Zippy6 said: So the FTC suing to stop it, the EU sending them a list of concerns to be addressed and now the CMA's provisional response. If this deal goes through without heavy compromises, if at all, it'd be a miracle for Xbox. Xbox really need this deal to go through. |
Technically, FTC hasn't yet sued to block it, they need to do that through a federal court but they've not done that yet (despite having the ability to do so) because they know they'd lose fairly easily, instead they're employing delay tactics so that other regulators kill the deal (I.E. CMA) and it seems like it may actually work, clever bastards, although an abuse of their power, Lol.
EU's SO was expected as it's the next step in talking remedies and the general consensus was that EU won't approve it without remedies, an EU spokesperson said in relation to the ABK deal as well that deals are very very likely to pass EU with behavioural remedies, there is a very strong chance that it will pass in EU with the offered remedies (10 year CoD, etc).
CMA is definitely an issue though and basically what everyone was saying is proving to be true, the entire deal hinges on CMA, it doesn't matter what EU/FTC decide as Microsoft can fight that, CMA has next to no oversight and complete power, Microsoft can't take them to court, they can only appeal a decision and have it sent back to...CMA, Lol.
Things definitely look dire for the deal, unless of course we believe that CMA is actually serious about considering behavioural remedies, in which case, the 10 year offer might work if Microsoft shows them how it will work, but the issue is that CMA rarely accepts behavioural remedies and has outright expressed before that they don't like them so I'm not sure I believe CMA's comment about being open to behavioural remedies.
If it comes down to structural remedies then Activision + CoD will have to go and I don't see Microsoft going for that, so I think it's dead as I don't believe the CMA is serious about accepting behavioural remedies even if they say they're open to it but maybe I'm just too pessimistic on all things UK, Lol.
Even IF Microsoft was okay with structural remedies.
- They'd have to find someone who actually wants to buy Activision + CoD.
- They'd have to find someone who could actually afford it.
- They'd have to find someone who won't also run into regulatory scrutiny.
I'd assume that would rule out Tencent (and Sony, obviously). I think Amazon would be borderline due to their Luna business if CoD is deemed too important for Cloud services as well. Google likely won't be interested. Take-Two/EA likely couldn't afford it which is sad because they'd be my ideal option. Maybe Apple could be a possibility but regulators are down their throat lately and them having CoD mobile further increases their iOS store power which regulators are clamping down on lately.
It's such a headache and they have two weeks to figure it out, Lol.
Deal is f*cked, Imo.
