Here is where I stand:
1.) Xbox is doing fine. Even if by some metrics they aren't doing as well as Sony, that doesn't mean they're doing terrible. They're doing incredibly well.
2.) I really, really, really doubt that these kinds of decisions are down to just Phil Spencer. It requires approval of several people above him.
4) whatever Deviation games create will look and perform better than COD as Sony will throw their talent behind it. Developers who leave / are sacked from Activision will join Deviation and Deviation will will join the PS family.
I don't think we even know if Deviation Games is working on a first person shooter. I know that the team is made up of a lot of CoD people, but that doesn't mean that's what they're continuing with.
Call of Duty is a bit more than just a successful first person shooter. It's a product of an absolute machine from numerous different developers that are much larger than Deviation Games.
It's worked on by thousands of people. Deviation Games has less than 200 developers.
Even if by some miracle they managed the quality, CoD also has a lot of momentum. Brand awareness that's on a completely different level. They have an established pipeline with yearly launches.