Haha. Damn...The market is pricing in an 18% probability of deal success.
Anyway. Idas answered a few other questions as well.
- Only the CMA posts potential remedies to their concerns if they don't block the deal, whereas the EC shares their concerns but the party (I.E. Microsoft) have to offer remedies which are acceptable for the EC. So EC is basically "Do the work yourself, bring us your best offer" and CMA is basically "Here's what you have to do"
- His "crazy gut feeling" is that EC will approve it with behavioural remedies but the CMA will approve it without any remedies.
- Thinks CMA's provisional findings will come after the SO from the EC.
- Difference between informal and formal talks, informal talks focus on the what, formal talks focus on the when/how. Microsoft should have a good idea of what they could address of the concerns from the EC during the informal talks.
- SO's are usually confidential and only between the two parties, in this case, Microsoft and the EC, but we'll maybe have some stuff leaked through the press.
Sidenote: FTC vs Meta will be decided before the end of this month as well, Lol.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 22 January 2023
