Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ryuu96]

SecondWar said:

Ryuu96 said:

I do think we will see Ukraine take more areas before then though, I hope. The biggest challenge now is mud but freezing temperatures are coming and a frozen ground is way more preferable to mud.

I'm not so sure as the frontline has been mostly static since Russia withdrew from Kherson city. Feels like its relatively fixed until spring.

With the freeze, they've been saying that since the start of December. When is the ground meant to freeze? Its also a problem Russia ran into a couple of weeks after the initial invasion after the post-winter thaw so seems like a rather small window to attack in.

Should be starting to now. Around Mid-January is the safe estimation.

It is currently -11 in Kreminna, and -12 in Svatove.

The temperature will vary between -9c to -17c in those two areas for the next 48 hours. This is the time required for the ground to freeze. Then, it will stay sub 0c for next 7 days after, ensuring the ground stays frozen.

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) January 6, 2023

If it's not already, the ground will be frozen in both Kreminna and Svatove by today evening.

Heavy battles are taking place.

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) January 9, 2023

I think given how close Ukrainian forces are to Kreminna and Svatove, I wouldn't be too surprised if they both fell before Spring as long as the ground stays frozen. Anything more than that I would agree is extremely unlikely, I don't think for example they'd go for Melitopol until Spring at the earliest. Meanwhile Soledar isn't looking too good for Ukraine, I hope they can hold on, it looks like Russia is trying to encircle Bakhmut instead.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 09 January 2023