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Kyuu on 07 January 2023
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scrapking said:
Kyuu said:

Sony isn't gonna copy a cheap console that requires promotions/sales to sell 30% or less than their supply constrained (COVID) premium console. I stilll think Series S is a misfired product that benefited from the pandemic by sheer luck.

If it does happen, I hope it wouldn't be as big of a gap as Series S vs X, but we will inevitably get to a point where the lowest common denominator for the majority of relevant video games will be your mobile phone, so the appeal of a powerful hardware will decrease over time. It's just a matter of when.

I think you're premature in judging the strategy as a misfire.  From the beginning, Microsoft said their expectation was that the Series X would sell better at first, and that the Series S would sell better over time.  And that makes sense to me, as the early-adopters are going to tend to want the most powerful options, but as the generation wears on and the mix of buyers shifts from more hardcore games to more casual gamers the Series S may indeed grow in popularity.  Given Microsoft's stated intentions/expectations, we will only be able to judge their success/failure at the end of this generation, not the beginning or middle.

I don't think I'd have to wait that long to gather that Microsoft made a serious miscalculation. Actually the bolded pretty much shows why it's indeed misfired. MS thought this generation will play out like X1/PS4 vs X1X/PS4 Pro where the low powered/cheap SKU sees higher demand or sales. They kept the Series S a secret until not long before launch as if to checkmate Sony.

It seems that by design, the Series X was positioned to be their limited-quantity/enthusiast SKU that's just there to assist the Series S, their primary SKU. This would not pan out well in a long generation. Series S has very little room for effective long term pricedrops compared to PS5 and Series X (see Wii vs PS3), and it's underpowered right off the bat, meaning it will age rather poorly especially if a midgen upgrade is planned. When/if midgen upgrades are launched, a lot of AAA developers will push for fidelity high enough for base (by then cheap) PS5 and Series X to struggle in achieving 1080p+/40+ fps (You wanna go higher? Get the PS5 Pro, or the Xbox Series XL, or a capable PC!), Series S won't be able to adequately handle games with such high workload. We're not yet feeling the S limitations because we're still stuck in the crossgen period, the vast majority of console-grade games are souped up/upgraded Xbox 1 games.

If Series X meets demand and continues to sell less than the S, I'd blame it on Microsoft's marketing and people giving up and switching to PS5 or PC. As always, I may be wrong and Series S does manage to appeal to a new large dempgraphic, but so far I'm not feeling it and I don't think it'll happen.

The Series X and PS5 aren't priced as "hardcore gamer" consoles. With inflation in mind, they're priced in line with typical powerful consoles. I don't know why you're assuming demand will decrease over time in favor of the Series S. The only notably underpowered home consoles I can think of are the Wii and Wii U, one managed to find huge success by appealing to a new dempgraphic early in its lifecycle, but ultimately having weak legs because it aged poorly (I predicted that), and the other was a commercial disaster. It's less that PS5/Series X are "hardcore", and more that Series S is too cheap/underpowered. The existing console playerbase have no problem paying up to $500 ($400 for digital editions) for a powerful console, the Series S is trying to solve an issue that doesn't exist.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 07 January 2023