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I think that the delay is a good sign for MS. The CMA could have followed the FTC but they are taking their time and not rushing the process.
The delay suggests a few things:
- This is not an easy block because the CMA already had the arguments (decision from Phase 1) and a big supporter (the FTC) to do that. Instead, they are delaying the whole process two months (not just 2-3 weeks). Therefore, if this ends up being blocked, I expect the arguments to be more nuanced than the ones from the FTC.
- At the same time, the delay suggests that some of the arguments from MS during Phase 2 have worked because the CMA already had a blueprint for a full prohibition with the decision from Phase 1, where almost every argument from MS was rejected.
- It could also suggest that they are thinking about an approval, with or without remedies. In that case, it makes sense to have more time because both outcomes are going to be divisive: 1) because they are accepting behavioural remedies after rejecting them systematically for years or 2) because they don't see the need for remedies although this is one of the biggest deals in history, could affect nascent markets and is coming from Big Tech.
In any case, I think the extra time is good news for MS.
Well, this changes the timeline quite a bit.
Now the EC, CMA and even SAMR in China could be aligned in timing for the final decision.
New Zealand should be the next regulator to publish a decision, but I'm already expecting a fourth delay xD
NEXT IMPORTANT DATES
- January 18th 2023: original outside date (when the parties expected the merger to be done). If MS quits before that date they have to pay a termination fee of $2,000,000,000; if they don’t, the outside date gets extended until April 18th 2023.
- Late January 2023: Statement of objections from the EC (unless MS can offer a convincing remedy package to avoid it).
- Late January /Early February 2023: provisional findings and remedies (if required) from the CMA.
- February 3rd 2023: decision from New Zealand.
- April 11th 2023: final decision from the EC (if MS didn’t close the deal sooner).
- April 18th 2023: second extension of the original outside date. If MS quits before that date they have to pay a termination fee of $2,500,000,000; if they don’t, the outside date gets extended until July 18th 2023.
- April 26th 2023: final report and remedies (if required) from the CMA.
- April - May 2023: decision from the SAMR in China.
- July 18th 2023: The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. If MS quits before that date they have to pay a termination fee of $3,000,000,000; if they don’t, they’ll have to renegotiate the outside date with ABK.
- August 2nd 2023: beginning of the FTC in-house trial.
- Early 2024: decision from the FTC administrative law judge.
- Anything beyond that: unknown
