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EpicRandy on 09 December 2022
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Ryuu96 said:

If anyone is interested, here are CMA's stats.

Phase 2 Outcomes

Jan 2019 - Nov 2022

  • 68% result in deal mortality (comprising prohibition, unwind, and deal abandonment upon referral or during Phase 2); this compares to 30% for the period from CMA formation to end 2017;
  • 81% result in "intervention" in the sense of deal mortality or imposition of remedies, with 19% unconditionally cleared; this 81:19 split compares to a 56:44 split for the period from CMA formation to end 2017, which was consistent with the perceived Competition Commission (CC) long-run rate of approximately 50:50 from the introduction of the Enterprise Act to CMA formation (from mid-2003 to end March 2014).
  • 6% of Phase 2 cases have been/are being reviewed in parallel by the European Commission and the CMA (3 total).

Phase 2 Stats | Publications | Insights | Linklaters

68% of deals that make it to Phase 2 are killed, only 13% are cleared with remedies, for a total of 81% resulting in "intervention" and only 19% are cleared unconditionally, these are the stats for every deal that makes it to Phase 2 specifically.

Brexit has made them go gloves off, Lol. More than double killing deals and almost impossible to fight against them.

I'm with Hoeg now that I would put this deal at around a 40% chance of passing, CMA is in no shits given mode even at the best of times.

Yeah I saw those stats earlier but found them incomplete as MS is unlikely to abandon the deal and we don't know how much of those 68% is a result of such. A more insightful stat would need to exclude those. Also I read somewhere that there was 1 successful case of a reversal of a phase 2 decisions ( Sainsbury’s/Asda 2018 don't know much only read diagonally) through an appeal process. So even if the prospect is still grim it's not as CMA can just block the deal without making a compelling argument or else they will need to hope those involved in the appeal process are as bias as them.

Edit: Also focus of the Phase 1 results expose so few contention points that you would believe a remedy proposal is more likely than outright blocking of the deal. Also MS have clearly demonstrated their willingness to work out any issue so then again it increase the outlook that remedies would be ask and worked upon. 

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 09 December 2022