Ryuu96 on 09 December 2022
If anyone is interested, here are CMA's stats.
Phase 2 Outcomes
Jan 2019 - Nov 2022
- 68% result in deal mortality (comprising prohibition, unwind, and deal abandonment upon referral or during Phase 2); this compares to 30% for the period from CMA formation to end 2017;
- 81% result in "intervention" in the sense of deal mortality or imposition of remedies, with 19% unconditionally cleared; this 81:19 split compares to a 56:44 split for the period from CMA formation to end 2017, which was consistent with the perceived Competition Commission (CC) long-run rate of approximately 50:50 from the introduction of the Enterprise Act to CMA formation (from mid-2003 to end March 2014).
- 6% of Phase 2 cases have been/are being reviewed in parallel by the European Commission and the CMA (3 total).
Phase 2 Stats | Publications | Insights | Linklaters
68% of deals that make it to Phase 2 are killed, only 13% are cleared with remedies, for a total of 81% resulting in "intervention" and only 19% are cleared unconditionally, these are the stats for every deal that makes it to Phase 2 specifically.
Brexit has made them go gloves off, Lol. More than double killing deals and almost impossible to fight against them.
I'm with Hoeg now that I would put this deal at around a 40% chance of passing, CMA is in no shits given mode even at the best of times.
Edit - Few more stats.
Of the 13% Cleared With Remedies - 7/53.
- 6/7 of those Remedies were "Divestment" I.E. Sell off assets.
- Only 1/7 was a Behavioural Remedy (I.E. CoD for 10 years).
Of the 19% (10/53) Cleared Unconditionally.
- 6/10 are either British companies merging with each other, or foreign companies acquiring British companies.
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