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[Ryuu96]

FUTURE SCENARIOS AND RELEVANT DATES:

Early January 2023

Provisional findings from the CMA, it's like a draft of the final decision. That should give us a pretty good idea of what the CMA believes right now. The arguments from the FTC in December 2022 are very similar to the arguments from the CMA in September 2022 at the end of Phase 1.

Does that mean that the CMA is still following that line of thinking? Maybe or maybe not, the CMA is full of surprises :p

We'll have to wait.

January 18th 2023 (termination fee $2,000,000,000)

Original outside date (when the parties expected the merger to be done). If MS quits before that date, they "only" have to pay 2 billion. If the provisional findings from the CMA are really negative, that's a serious possibility.

If the decision is positive and the remedies reasonable, I think that MS will extend the outside date to April 18th 2023.

March 1st 2023

This is when the CMA has to publish the final report (final version of the draft from January after the feedback from the parties). If the decision is negative for MS, I think that the deal is done. If it's positive and they can close the deal there, even with concessions, they'll keep going on.

April 11th 2023

This is when the European Commission has to publish a decision about the case. But it could happen sooner if the remedies offered by MS solve all the concerns that the EC may have. In fact, I think that MS is going to push really hard to close the EC before the end of 2022.

If MS doesn't accelerate the process, and the decision from the CMA is positive in March, I think that they'll wait until this moment to get the deal approved in Europe.

April 18th 2023 (termination fee $2,500,000,000)

The end of the first extension of the original outside date.

By then they should know the outcomes from the CMA and EC. If the CMA has been negative and they expect something similar from the EC, I think that they'll quit before that date.

If by then both the EC and CMA have approved the deal, from then the FTC is going to be the main goal.

April - May 2023

The decision from China should happen around those dates. If MS is still pushing and both the CMA and EC went ahead with the deal, the most likely scenario is that SAMR goes ahead too.

July 18th 2023 (termination fee $3,000,000,000)

The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. If by then the CMA, EC and SMAR have approved the deal, I think that the parties will renegotiate the outside date to have enough time to go against the FTC. That should add at least an extra year.

August 2nd 2023

This is when the FTC has scheduled its in-house trial to begin, but if MS can close the deal in Europe or UK before that date, this is likely to change and it could happen earlier and maybe in federal court because then the parties could close the deal.

It could also change depending on the outcome from two cases in the Supreme Court and even the outcome from the Meta - Within case.

Lots of IFs in this case.

Early 2024

If the deal is approved in UK and Europe, but MS has to wait until the finish line in every case and for some reason the beginning of the FTC in-house trial hasn't changed, early 2024 is when the FTC Administrative Law Judge D. Michael Chappell would likely put a decision :s

After that, Microsoft or the FTC could appeal his ruling to the agency's commissioners. And after that MS or the FTC could go to federal court. :p That could be around the end of 2024, early 2025.

I don't think that MS/ABK would wait until then, but it's a possibility right now.

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So, now I think that MS will try to fast track the decision from the EU while they finish the review process with the CMA until provisional findings in January 2023.

If both outcomes are positive (specially the CMA), they'll go ahead and the FTC scenario will probably accelerate. If both outcomes are negative (specially the CMA), the deal will be abandoned as soon as January 2023 or as late as April 2023.

Source: Idas.