Xbox |OT|

[Ryuu96]

Machiavellian said:

Ryuu96 said:

FTC is clearly not planning on going to court anytime soon (August 2023) so their goal seems obvious, either delay it long enough to make Microsoft abandon the deal or push another regulator to block the deal.

I think this puts them in a worse position with CMA, it isn't like CMA benefits from approving the deal, now CMA will know that they hold all the power and they could take down big tech, it will be a very appealing win in their eyes, and once again, if CMA blocks it, there is very little that Microsoft can do, no matter if CMA's arguments are as dumb as FTCs.

I don't think FTC would have done something this risky or stupid if they didn't have reasonable confidence that someone else is going to block as well, that is likely CMA. Sure, the CMA can get a concessional win, but I think the win against big tech is far more appealing, especially for a regulator who have lately been blocking quite a lot and showing off their power.

The FTC does this all the time, why would they care if they lose.  It's not like anyone job is on the line.  Instead, they need to appear to be strong against big corps like MS.  Just look at the arguments, it's like they are not even trying.  I highly doubt that this lawsuit means anything to any other regulatory body unless the arguments were strong enough to be used.  

I believe you fear the CMA to much but like all regulatory divisions, there is a price you can pay.  Like I said, as long as they continue to focus on COD, then the CMA is nothing to worry about.  If the narrative change then a revaluation would be on hand.  

They aren't trying precisely because they are hoping for someone else to block the deal, that is obvious now.

Regulators can be swayed into a certain direction based on the actions of other regulators, while regulators do focus on their own area, they are still in touch with each other as well and sometimes work together to take something down. CMA also expressed very similar arguments to FTC, such as disregarding Nintendo as a competitor entirely.

If there is indeed a price you can pay, then why is CMA blocking so many deals? And why didn't Microsoft pay that to FTC? We don't know much about CMA's Phase 2 yet but their Phase 1 was pretty awful and they don't exactly need a good reason to block the deal it seems, they can now just parrot FTC's argument.

This deal entirely depends on if CMA is feeling as political as FTC...Regulators clamping down on big tech is the big thing right now. Again, FTC doesn't block deals, they get courts to block the deals, CMA blocks a deal, if you appeal, it gets sent to CAT, who then send it back to CMA who can then just block it again.

Based on CMA's Phase 1 arguments and that UK is more often than not aligned with America, and Microsoft is the master at lobbying in America but failed here, they're even less in UK, CMA doesn't care about Microsoft one bit, so it entirely depends on how Political CMA is feeling, it's a complete tossup Imo.