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Ryuu96 on 08 December 2022
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Machiavellian said:
Ryuu96 said:

Eh, I don't know how you have that confidence, Lol.

Definitely isn't working according to plan, all it takes now is CMA to block the deal and it's dead.

Doesn't really matter if Microsoft makes a stronger case to CMA if they are as politically motivated as FTC is.

CMA is the complete wildcard and regulators blocking deals in history has often convinced others to do the same.

Its working to plan because of the narrative.  CMA is concentrating on COD which is right where MS want that conversation to go.  This FTC lawsuit gives MS a very easy win as their just way to much data they have to refute every claim and come out smelling like a rose.  It also will give them a better position with the CMA in my opinion.  MS could easily give COD a 25 year deal, who really cares if that is what you want.  COD is a easy win as long as the conversation remains on that one IP.

When I look at this, everything is working in a more best case scenarios for MS because from the way I see it, this was always going to go this way.  So if it was going to get this kind of push back, then MS want to be able to control the narrative to improve their chance of landing the deal.  If anything, things are going exactly how a big corporation like MS purchasing a huge deal like ABK would happen. 

The saving grace for MS is that they do not control nothing within the gaming space and with this deal it still will not make them the biggest company in the gaming space.  You cannot say MS will control the market when they are not the market leader.  You cannot say they will cancel games when they are willing to make any concessions.  You cannot say they will control the service space when they are not the biggest service provider, nor do they control the space after this deal.  You cannot say they will institute predator practice since they stop doing that a while ago and their competitor continue to do so with their market lead.  MS is sitting pretty at the moment because there really has not been any real conversation on their true impact at this time.

FTC is clearly not planning on going to court anytime soon (August 2023) so their goal seems obvious, either delay it long enough to make Microsoft abandon the deal or push another regulator to block the deal.

I think this puts them in a worse position with CMA, it isn't like CMA benefits from approving the deal, now CMA will know that they hold all the power and they could take down big tech, it will be a very appealing win in their eyes, and once again, if CMA blocks it, there is very little that Microsoft can do, no matter if CMA's arguments are as dumb as FTCs.

I don't think FTC would have done something this risky or stupid if they didn't have reasonable confidence that someone else is going to block as well, that is likely CMA. Sure, the CMA can get a concessional win, but I think the win against big tech is far more appealing, especially for a regulator who have lately been blocking quite a lot and showing off their power.