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Ryuu96 on 08 December 2022
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Spade said:

CMA or EU expecting to block? Any time table what they have, or their current direction.

January-April, Lol.

EC had a fairly positive response in Phase 1, it mirrored Brazil's in many ways, they're also very open to concessions and don't tend to follow America in everything like UK does, they also haven't became as politically motivated as FTC has and they represent all the EU countries, an EC person even says there is a very high chance of approval if concessions are given.

EC will (Imho) likely approve it, EC still regulates in the same manner that they always have. Once EC approves it, China will almost certainly approve it as well as they're waiting for EC's decision, China wants to align themselves with Europe more and more.

CMA is a complete wildcard, it seems ever since Brexit they've been waving their dick around and blocking quite a lot, they can block the deal and there's shit that Microsoft can do about it except complain to CAT who then send it back to CMA, CMA's Phase 1 response was awful but their Phase 2 team is different. It's a complete unknown.

If I were to bet, I'd bet on CMA blocking it, UK is more often than not aligned with America, a one two punch combo of FTC suing to block and then CMA blocking it in UK will for sure kill the deal and both of them will come out of it looking like they just got a massive win against big tech.