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Machiavellian said:

Everything still seems to be working according to plan. FTC looks like they care about big tech. MS has a clear way to show this deal is legit and does no harm to the industry which then allows them to make stronger case in other countries. My estimate that this deal closes without to much fuss. I am giving it an above 90% chance.

Eh, I don't know how you have that confidence, Lol.

Definitely isn't working according to plan, all it takes now is CMA to block the deal and it's dead.

Doesn't really matter if Microsoft makes a stronger case to CMA if they are as politically motivated as FTC is.

CMA is the complete wildcard and regulators blocking deals in history has often convinced others to do the same.