I've been wondering what to expect of ~2028 next-generation consoles given the huge PC parts (both power consumption and cost-wise) we've been getting. Some napkin math follows:
In a neat GAAFET 300 mm2 SoC at 300 MT/mm2, we get 90B transistors, which suffices for an Ada 102 chip + a 16-corer CPU inside. The real question would be power consumption. We'd need a 4x improvement in less than six years to utilize said components in a console-sized box. This is more than the difference between a Geforce 900 series and a 40 series, so frequencies will have to be optimized lower than retail at the cost of performance.
Expect frame generation and upscaling to be the norm if you want your early 2030 console games better than what they look in a PC of today, then. Render your games smarter, not harder.
