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derpysquirtle64 said:

Even though I’m not a fan of this Activision deal as I said right when it was announced (because I think that Microsoft could have spent 70m$ better, Actiblizz doesn’t have enough value for that price), I hope the deal goes through. Because it not going through will probably put the final nail in the coffin of any potential acquisitions by Microsoft. Not only Microsoft themselves would be less willing to acquire someone, fearing that they will get blocked once again, it will also create this narrative for FTC, CMA, etc. that Microsoft is already big enough.

Square Enix can be crossed out of this list. If ActiBlizz is blocked, Square Enix will get blocked as well. Because, you know, final fantasy players might switch to xbox. 

I don't think the final nail for any acquisition, but I do think it would be the final nail in any large acquisition, I don't have a clue where the line is now, so I'd just guess that anything above Ubisoft won't be allowed. I think Sony will do an almighty whinge at Japanese regulators if Microsoft attempts to go for Square Enix too which may sway their decision, I'm honestly thinking only Capcom and Sega would pass at this stage for large multiplatform companies.

Microsoft have said already that whether this deal passes or not, they're still going to be aggressive and all in but losing ABK is a big blow to their mobile ambitions. I think they'd make some strategic individual studio purchases and maybe go for a large mobile only developer.  Sega would help on the PC side, not as much as Blizzard but a decent step forward, they'd still be looking for a mobile developer though. They'll probably outbid Sony for CoD marketing and go back to moneyhatting shit as well.

Though one thing to bear in mind for those saying they'd have $69bn freed, they spent this money back when interest rates were shit and near negative levels, interest rates have risen since then to over 3%, leaving it in the bank is becoming an acceptable option again but it doesn't really matter, they don't need all $69bn, especially when we can rule out Take-Two and other large companies now as well.

There's still a chance that FTC has no intention on suing to block and is doing what Hoeg said, formulating a suit because they need to for concessions, I don't know what those concessions are but if Microsoft agrees to them then FTC would still come out of this with a "win" to the public and they can brag that they strong armed Microsoft into concessions.

We need to watch CMA more than FTC.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 November 2022