Currently Online 
Activision stock taking a little dip, Lol.
We're probably down to two ways that Microsoft wins.
Microsoft gets on their hands and knees and makes some concessions with the FTC that satisfy them and can be seen as a win for FTC or by some miracle, Microsoft convinces CMA to not sue to block and that would mean Microsoft can happily pound FTC in court, the issue here is CMA's deadline is months after FTC's so it's very unlikely.
So, it looks like we're left with two scenarios, either FTC is preparing a lawsuit for concessions or FTC sues to block, if they sue to block, the deal is dead because of the high likelihood that CMA would sue to block as well. I'm actually moving down from 50% to 40% because right now I'm leaning towards it being blocked.
