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Interesting OSINT report about the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus: what we can see are mobilized Russian reservists arriving at training bases, not units with offensive capabilities at the borders. Raises questions: is Belarus supposed to be simply a training site? https://t.co/wHM4ib7Ksh
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) October 16, 2022
Last week Lukashenko announced the deployment of a joint Belarusian-Russian regional grouping of troops composed of Belarusian ground forces and several thousand Russian troops (Belarusian MoD later specified there would be 9,000 of them). 2/
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
2) Russian military trains don't carry any heavy equipment - only trucks, petrol tankers and passenger cars with soldiers. 3) Russians are not being brought to the border with Ukraine like in January, but to training bases in northern Belarus. 4/ pic.twitter.com/g4I7Fda0Ra
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
According to the AFU joint forces command, as of early October, there were up to 1,000 Russian troops, 6 aircraft, 4 Iskanders and 12 S-400s in Belarus. In theory, the mobilised troops could reinforce this grouping after training, but there are several "buts". 6/
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
Or rather, the videos are real, but they show trains of the Belarusian army. This can be easily determined by the blue passenger cars (Russia's are grey) and the triangle-shaped tactical markings adopted by the Belarusian army in late Summer. 8/ pic.twitter.com/0S8FfAKLsF
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
The Belarusian MoD said today that Russia plans to transfer 170 tanks to Belarus, but so far we see the opposite process. Without any statement last week alone, Belarus handed over at least 92 T-72A tanks and dozens of trucks to Russia. 10/
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
About the deployment of a regional grouping of troops, pre-emptive strikes, partial mobilisation, issuing of weapons to firefighters, etc. Some of these statements aren't even new, they were just repeated this week for greater effect. 12/
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
The only real things we have so far are the arrival of Russian mobiks, the handover of >100 tanks and trucks to Russia and isolated "mobilisation readiness exercises" in some areas of Belarus, which look as pathetic as in Russia. Everything else is just hawkish rhetoric. 14/ pic.twitter.com/CvgAXln0Sl
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
With minefields, echeloned defence, blown-up bridges, etc. An attack on them by the Belarusian-Russian grouping in its current state would be suicide which would likely result in Lukashenko's political suicide. So no, there will be no attack from Belarus, at least for now. 16/16 pic.twitter.com/43uNs9HXZN
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) October 17, 2022
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