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Ryuu96 on 17 October 2022
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crissindahouse said:

Belarus talking way too much about "preventive measures" to defend the country lately. Especially with some hundred Russian tanks and some thousand soldiers sent to Belarus lately. Around a month ago I've read on Twitter from some Ukrainian (not sure who that was anymore) that there is some information about Belarus joining the war in November. Doesn't sound too unrealistic anymore even if it's just to fuck up Ukraine's planning and logistics. 

Posturing, Imho.

We've actually seen videos of tanks being sent from Belarus to Russia. Thousands of soldiers have been sent to Belarus though.

Looking at the facts, the actual combat ready Belarusian army is small, it's even worse equipped and trained than the Russians and they have very little combat experience, to put it bluntly, the Belarusian army is a joke.

Back in February, Russia threw a lot at Kyiv, and Ukraine was not fully prepared as some of Ukraine didn't believe Russia would invade and what happened? Russia was sent through a meatgrinder in the North and completely collapsed.

Now Ukraine has had months of training for this exact scenario, the bridges are primed, the border is mined to shit, Ukraine is better prepared and better equipped than when they fought Russia's troops at the start of the war.

They'll get absolutely slaughtered; Ukraine will light up the borders and a few Belarusian airfields are within range of HIMARS and with the Belarus army dealt with, Lukashenko is in deep trouble in a country that hates him and only recently had massive protests against him.

There's already been reports of defections in Belarus military when they believed they were about to be sent to war, along with people sabotaging Belarus railways. The Belarus army will be even less motivated than Russia to fight Ukraine and they'll be a lot of defections.

So, I do believe it's just posturing, it's to keep Ukraine's forces on the border with Belarus and away from the frontlines but if Belarus ever entered the actual war, Lukashenko would be fucked as he'd no longer have an army to protect him.

Also, it would be absolutely insane to start an invasion in Winter, Lol. They don't have much time left.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 17 October 2022