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haxxiy said:

I've seen that the estimated cost of a 300 mm 5 nm wafer from TSMC is about $14,000-$15,000 vs. ~ $10,000 for the 7 nm process wafer. I don't know how much more expensive Nvidia's 'special' node is but let's assume it's 10% more and they all have a similar rate of defects.

So there's a huge price increase there, more than 50% per mm2. Using the die yield calculator:

$10,000 / 71 viable GA102 per wafer = $140,84 per chip

$15,950 / 75 viable AD102 per wafer = $212,66 per chip

That's for the big ones. The smallest (AD104) yields 170 chips per wafer in this estimate and would cost $93,82 per chip, around 66% of the GA102 Ampere chips. If the profit margin were the same, the price of the RTX 4080 12 GB should've been $599-$699. On the other hand, the profit margin of the 4090 is lower than the 3090 as everyone noticed eyeballing it.

RTG might have had a good idea before Nvidia for once with the chiplet design. Using standard 5 nm and assuming 250 mm2 per chiplet, the cost would be $138,75 for the Navi 31 die vs. $113,63 for Navi 21 (a 22% increase per mm2).

But even with 100 mm2 chiplets the cost should increase another 30% by 2026 over AD102, so yeah.

Hopefully RTG will bring their A game this time around. The post is wide open and the ball is in their court so the game is theirs to lose. All they need to do is price it decently at the very least and they will gain massive market share. I just hope they aren't too greedy cause if they only price it 10% lower than Nvidia, Nvidia will win another gen unless AMD has feature parity. If AMD can price it 20% or lower, thats when we can start seeing people starting to switch imo.