I've seen that the estimated cost of a 300 mm 5 nm wafer from TSMC is about $14,000-$15,000 vs. ~ $10,000 for the 7 nm process wafer. I don't know how much more expensive Nvidia's 'special' node is but let's assume it's 10% more and they all have a similar rate of defects.
So there's a huge price increase there, more than 50% per mm2. Using the die yield calculator:
$10,000 / 71 viable GA102 per wafer = $140,84 per chip
$15,950 / 75 viable AD102 per wafer = $212,66 per chip
That's for the big ones. The smallest (AD104) yields 170 chips per wafer in this estimate and would cost $93,82 per chip, around 66% of the GA102 Ampere chips. If the profit margin were the same, the price of the RTX 4080 12 GB should've been $599-$699. On the other hand, the profit margin of the 4090 is lower than the 3090 as everyone noticed eyeballing it.
RTG might have had a good idea before Nvidia for once with the chiplet design. Using standard 5 nm and assuming 250 mm2 per chiplet, the cost would be $138,75 for the Navi 31 die vs. $113,63 for Navi 21 (a 22% increase per mm2).
But even with 100 mm2 chiplets the cost should increase another 30% by 2026 over AD102, so yeah.
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