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JWeinCom on 16 September 2022
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IcaroRibeiro said:
JWeinCom said:

We've seen really successful systems followed up with duds before. The Vita was nearly as bad as the Wii U. PS3 was a pretty big drop off from the PS2. Not a Wii U failure, but a definite misstep. 3DS could have gone down as a huge flop, but Nintendo salvaged it with an aggressive price cut.

It's really not that hard to fuck up a system launch. Lots can go wrong. 599 US Dollars, always on, surprise launch on Saturnday, etc. And it's an industry that's changing pretty quick. I really couldn't put a number on it, because as most humans are, I am terribly at probability. That's why casinos are so successful. If it happened, I'd be very surprised, but not shocked. Obviously though I'm hoping Nintendo the next system will be a success.

PS3 and 3DS levels of underpeforming are doable, Wii U and Vita though...

Nintendo has the monopoly over 2 markets, the handheld market and Japanese market. This will prevent them to bomb. If with pitiful software sales PS5 will sell over 5 million there, anything I mean ANYTHING Nintendo releases there is a safe 10 million plus simply because there is nothing else left to buy

I honestly can't see Nintendo selling anything less than 50 million next gen even if they drop their next console quickly (4 years like the Wii U), it would need a brutal and unpredictable changing on gaming landscape that completely crash the market. 

Look man, I'm old. I've seen things. The rise and fall of Blockbuster. I've asked questions to jeeves. I remember when there was a K-mart on every corner. When AOL discs came through the mail. I've eaten an Arch Deluxe. When the Wiz was finally beaten, I was there. I worked at a Toys R Us. I remember when Yahoo was bigger than google. I remember when Apple was just the company that made weird computers to play Oregon Trail on during computer period in school. I once asked someone what Chipotle was. I remember when Marvel was on the verge of bankruptcy desperately trying to unload their characters on Sony. I've seen things you couldn't fathom. 

Point is neither success nor survival are ever guaranteed. Things can turn around really quickly, and usually nobody sees it coming. I don't see any reason Nintendo's next console will fail, but if that happened, it wouldn't be the most surprsing thing I've ever witnessed.