I don't think we know about their holiday lineup aside from the new Pokémon game. So far we are in the know up until the end of September.
That's why I see no reason why there wouldn't be the usual big June Direct this year.
At this time last year, I believe the only major first party titles we knew about for anything past June were Skyward Sword HD, and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl. Wario Ware, Dread, and Mario Party were all announced then. This year, we already have Xenoblade 3 and Splathreen with release dates, and Bayonetta 3 and Pokemon Scarlet and Violet are confirmed for 2022. We also know that BOTW 2 was originally planned for this year but was delayed, so there may be a gap in there schedule.
So, basically, we know about 4 major titles that will, presumably, release in the second half of this year, which is the amount of major releases they had in 2021. If they have the same output as they did last year, then we basically know whats coming, and we shouldn't expect as big of a direct as we had last year. Of course, it's also possible that they'll just have more content this year.