So its been a few months.... again, time for a update.
2021 came and went, and now we have numbers (for trade, for the year).
Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound
https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-5853-4111-9600-ab5f0eb65a35
"Britain’s 14 per cent fall in goods exports stands in contrast to 8.2 per cent rise for rest of world"
UK goods exports have underperformed the rest of the world in what experts said was a sign that Brexit might be limiting the country’s trade performance.
The volume of UK goods exports fell 14 per cent in the three months to January compared with the same period in 2020, before the pandemic, according to the world trade monitor published on Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, known as the CPB. This was in stark contrast to the global average of an 8.2 per cent rise over the same period.
The data, which incorporates Office for National Statistics data for the UK, also showed that Britain compared poorly with the performance of all advanced countries where goods exports rose 5 per cent.
The analysis also showed that the UK was underperforming over the long term as it was the only country tracked by the CPB where goods exports remained below the 2010 average.
“While most other advanced economies have seen a strong recovery in trade, UK exports remain below pre-pandemic levels,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London.
The OBR noted that “none of the new free trade agreements or other regulatory changes announced so far would be sufficient” to have a material impact on its forecasts for UK trade. It has estimated that leaving the EU would result in the total UK imports and exports being 15 per cent lower than if Britain had remained part of the EU.
^ note its currently more like a 20% dip compaired to the other advanced economies in europe. Ei. Worse than their own 15% prediction.
also as a commentator on FT noted:
"Oh, and don't mention the UK, barely tracking the Eurozone in terms of GDP growth... by spending insane amounts of borrowed money:
14.9% budget deficit in 2020
12.7% budget deficit in 2021
(below 7% avg in the Eurozone both years by way of comparison)"
^ fair enough, pandemics are hard to predict and handle.
Thoughts?
ofc, its to be expected, when you put up trade barriers (leaveing the single market), you get less trade.
I wonder what numbers about 2022 will say, come 2023.
Last edited by JRPGfan - on 27 March 2022
