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Im going on a limb by myself here, I believe that there’s enough room for 3 consoles. No matter how bad a company messes up, they can recover if there’s a market that will buy their products.

Sega had investors, their own president flushed them with all of his own money before he died. If it was just PlayStation 2 vs Gsmecube, Dreamcast could have stayed in the fight! Once the word got out that there would be 4 home consoles, that’s when Sega’s poor performance became too big of an issue. There was no market left for them to share.

I can’t envision a market that only had PlayStation 2 vs GameCube. Microsoft’s entrance is the nail in the coffin.