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Looks like Elden Ring will be above Tales of Arise launch but below Ghost of Tsushima, I expect the PS4 version to end up around 175K and PS5 to be at most 75K,
This type of launch would make Elden Ring a Top 25 launch on the PS4 and the last title to launch with over 150K sales. Doesn't seem that PS5 audience has grown all that much since Tales of Arise launched leading to a disappointing result for the PS5 SKU, we might have to wait until next year until PS5 gets it's first 100K+ phyiscal launch.