Ryuu96 said:
Eh, I think it's fair, it does look like there is a lot of baffling choices made by the Russian military and the invasion does come across as a bit sloppy, Russia is on paper vastly superior to Ukraine in almost every way, Russia was expected to steamroll into Kyiv before the invasion and take it fairly quickly, they should have had air superiority by now, they're been firing at the wrong locations, their location data seems to be outdated, their extremely valuable planes which carry hundreds of troops are being blown out the skies cause they're flying around in an area they don't have air superiority in, they've been struggling to hold some locations, etc. They definitely didn't expect it to be as hard as it is and that is in part due to Ukraine's military turning out to be a lot tougher than expected but I also believe it's in part due to Russia's incompetence too, the Western intelligence which said that Russia would take Kyiv in days is now saying that Russia is experiencing a lot more casualties than expected. However... That doesn't mean that Ukraine will win, sadly, it is still the common belief that Russia will take Kyiv and thus, Ukraine, maintaining control over Ukraine is an entirely different question which isn't likely to go in Russia's favour, it can be true that Russia's military is fairly incompetent but they're still a very dangerous force through sheer numbers alone, Ukraine simply doesn't have those same numbers, not in manpower nor equipment, I don't know if there's a path where Zelensky wins, maybe if they can hold out just long enough, Russia decides it isn't worth it anymore, I don't know. Anyway, I would also say that painting Russia as fools doesn't really change anything for us, it ain't like we're doing the fighting but it does play a part in psychological warfare, I doubt Ukraine will underestimate Russia but at the same time, this will demoralise Russian troops (if they see it) and inspire Ukrainian troops, it will give them hope that they can actually win this thing if they have the belief this vastly superior army does have holes in its armour. |
On the other hand, it's a lot more bloodshed and collateral damage until negotiations begin. I doubt this would ever end with Russia simply annexing Ukraine again, outside pressure will eventually restore order. Whether a continue struggled improves the bargaining positions, I don't know.
The problem with ridiculing the army is that it can come back to bite you in the ass. I doubt Putin will say, ok this is more difficult than I thought, let's retreat. I find this a scarier situation than if Russia had simply occupied Kiev and negotiations and sanctions would attempt to undo the occupation. The longer it takes, the more likely it is that Putin is going to use worse and worse weapons. Hopefully the military chiefs stand up to him and say enough. However they went ahead with the invasion in the first place :/
Of course how sloppy it actually is, don't know either. Misinformation is everywhere. Information warfare just as much as ground warfare. As you said, it can be demoralising to the troops, so there is benefit to embellishing the mishaps and downplaying the advancing ground army.
And so continues the collateral damage
Latest on Russia-Ukraine: UN confirms at least 240 civilian casualties; Russian forces blow up gas pipeline
The Ukrainian president’s office said Russian forces blew up a gas pipeline in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city.
The State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection warned that the explosion, which it said looked like a mushroom cloud, could cause an “environmental catastrophe” and advised residents to cover their windows with damp cloth or gauze and to drink plenty of fluids.
Ukraine’s top prosecutor, Iryna Venediktova, said the Russian forces have been unable to take Kharkiv, where a fierce battle is underway.
You don't want to roll over for the enemy, yet fight until nothing is left doesn't get you anywhere either. Putin still wins with the destruction of the Ukraine :/ Ukraine has the defensive advantage, yet also the one that sees its country destroyed. There is no winning in war.
Quick heavy sanctions will hopefully put pressure on the Russian government to put an end to it. Yet the realist in me says sanctions take a lot of time to have effect. A lot more damage can be done in the mean time.
