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Kytiara- Pardon me for saying so, but the Drake's equation is a pretty daft example. All that does is identify the variables. Not one of them can be quanitified correctly, and thus the probability is completely incalculable.

I'm willing to bet that a good climatology team could put together a similar equation for global warming, tossing in all known major variables, and they'd have a much better chance (though in many cases, not a terribly good chance) of being able to plug in reasonable quantities.