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As far as motion controlls...technically all they need is few casually designed games to take off with motion controlls like wii sports and then some big titles to support them as well (like banjo and halo wars) where the controlls fit and they can pull it off.

Last thing I want is for GTA4 and Gears 2 to be motion controlls... Tennis and baseball however, for sure.

Rest of your predictions are fine. Bluray wont happen though. Microsoft doesn't need bluray to compete with ps3 in NA and in Europe and Japan they could give it away for free, PS3 will still sell more.