How much Sony will loss from Activision?

[aTokenYeti]

twintail said:

yvanjean said:

Even if the game is not exclusive the simple fact that most of the future Activision's games will come day and date on Game pass will result in massive loss of software sales on Sony consoles.  

Microsoft did not make these acquisitions to boost their sales on Sony consoles. I'm not sure where you guys are getting this pointless argument that Microsoft would care about profit from selling to Sony since that profit would be 5X greater if they can take a customer away from Sony. They lost the last generation and are trying to grow their userbase to match or surpass Sony this generation.  

When it comes down to it people work where they live and for the most compensation. 

You are clearly misinformed when it comes to Sony's current position in this generation. The last generation Sony outsold Microsoft consoles 2 to 1. But, this generation Sony lead has shrunk quite a bit and this 68 billion dollar acquisition is trying to make sure that the gap between the two is even smaller. 

The real impact here is not how much Sony loses on royalties from selling Activision games but rather how much consoles sales will they lose by not having Activision's games. 

How do you figure Sony is losing a lot of software sales from a game releasing day 1 on GP? Has that happened with any 3rd party release so far? Did that happen with Sony's own MLB release? I'm curious where figures show that Sony is losing out big time here, because nothing I can tell so far suggests this is the case at all.

And no one is suggesting that Activision is making these plays to keep pumping out games on PS5. The Bethesda deal clearly shows, to most people, that MS will keep the vast majority of what they release exclusive.

And yes, there are myriad reasons why someone might choose to work at one place over another. Nothing suggests that staff are going to stick around with an MS owned company either. I highly doubt there is any data to suggest what employees will do because their choices are based on many things. Talent moves. That's the reality of the industry.

Amphere Analysis has shown the PS5 outselling XSX in all 3 quarters that they have been out. Last numbers had them at 12.8m (PS5) to 6.7m (XSX). Their 2022 outlook has them surmising that the PS5 outsells at 2:1 (18M:9M). Suggesting that Sony's lead has 'shrunk quite a bit' is disingenuous to say the least.

I also don't think that hardware sales are the key factor here for Sony. Sure, they're bound to lose on all fronts, but hardware is not their major revenue driver: it's digital software. And this acquisition stands to hit their digital software revenue, as Vanguard appeared in the top 10 selling PSN games for both PS4/ PS5 in both US and EU (Black ops appeared in 3 of those 4 items). As an MP heavy game, this will also effect their subscription revenue (which at times is greater than that of hardware). 

Of course, it's far too early to tell what affect this is going to have on Sony. This year might see some interesting trends with their quarterly updates for their 2022 financials. That should start to give us some evidence of how they'll be affected.

We have more reason to believe Ampere’s analysis is inaccurate than accurate. They were almost certainly wrong about 2021. Their projections for PlayStation in 2022 are based on a poorly supported assumption that supply chain issues are going to improve drastically over the next 6 months. 

if we look at VGChartz numbers, which if you are not im not even sure why you are here, Xbox has improved its market share relative to Sony considerably in the 9th generation. I see no reason to think that won’t continue, and the continued mantra from largely Sony communities that the PS5 is destinies to outsell the Xbox series consoles 2:1 comes off as desperate wishful thinking more than a grounded analysis