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CaptainExplosion said:
JWeinCom said:

The Wii's problem was less about the age of the system and more about the fact that software completely dried up. In 2011, there was Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Skyward Sword and basically nothing else. Despite this, sales were relatively healthy in 2011, with 11.5 million units sold. Mario Party 9 was the only meaningful new release in 2012 (plus Xenoblade for the US), and then the Wii U came out and Nintendo stopped trying to sell Wiis, because they wanted to focus on their new machines.

In contrast, you can look at the DS. In its 6th full year on the market it still had decent support (Pokemon White in Japan, Heart Gold and Soul Silver on DS, Pokemon Ranger, Spirit Tracks and Dragon Quest 9) and it kept selling. And, the hardware for that was dated from the start. Even into its seventh year, it still had respectable sales. 

Anyone who really cares that much about the chipset probably isn't all that interested in the Switch. In terms of its chipset, its been dated since day one, yet it's still selling. It's about games. If they're not trying to launch a new console and a handheld line as they were in 2012, there's no reason to expect the sales trajectory to be similar.

The Wii's 6th year featured Fortune Street (a weird monopoly/Dragon Quest/Mario mash up), Kirby's Return to Dreamland (a pretty decent 2D Kirby Game), Mario and Sonic at the Olympics, Mario Sports Mix, and Skyward Sword. Assuming everything comes out on time and nothing new is announced, the Swtich will have Pokemon Legends, Advance Wars Reboot, Bayonetta 3, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Splatoon 3, and Breath of the Wild 2 (plus maybe Mario and Rabbids). Nintendo tends to announce new games as the year progresses. We did not know about Metroid Dread, Mario Party Superstars, Wario Ware, or Skyward Sword HD until about June. But even if nothing else comes to the Switch, its lineup is vastly superior to what the Wii was getting at the time, so really not the same situation.

So Ninty just has to keep pumping out good games every year possible for the rest of the Switch lifetime and the Switch 2's lifetime? Can't be that hard. ^^

Well, sales could go down either way. I'm not completely dismissing the effects of older hardware, although I think it has less to do with the graphics, and more to do with it being less shiny and new. But, better lineup=better sales seems like a pretty solid bet.