Which system will win?

[Kenny]

deathgod33 said:
im not a fanboy, i have both an xbox 360 and a ps3, and my uncle has a wii (which i seldom get to play), and i have to say its ps3 in the long run. for the people who say a new console will come out early, why do you want that? do you want to throw away another 300 to 600 bucks on another console, the console that stays out the longest has the most strength and the biggest long-term appeal. and besides even if a new wii or xbox come out in 2012 or 2011, doesnt mean that the last gen consoles will stop selling completely. the ps2 did outsell wii and 360 and even ps3 in the 2006 holiday season. i dont want to spend another 1000 dollars on the 3 new consoles so quickly. and the only thing stopping the ps3 from 150 million sales, is price, seriously 500 to 600 bucks to play games? no thank you. i was lucky to get one by working for like 2 years part time. in the long run, ps3 by a mile, its getting better and better every month, compare the ps3 now, and its infamous launch, and then compare it in 2012. BIG DIFFERENCE.

The problem with the "PS3 will win in the long run" argument is that the console wars have always been heavily influenced by momentum: As one system pulls ahead of its competitors, it makes strides in third party support and public image, leading to a self-sustaining reaction where the winning system achieves overwhelming dominance against its competitors, as witnessed with the PSX, the PS2, and the DS, with the Wii set to follow the same trajectory.

As well, at no point in the console wars has a system ever lost so much momentum after taking a lead that it ultimately loses against a contemporary competitor (the Dreamcast and XBox 360 are exceptions, as they only built a lead by launching early; in that, it wasn't so much a matter of momentum loss as it was a lack of momentum relative to its competition).