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I think anyone that is saying “there’s too many sales on PlayStation for them to miss out on” is missing the point. Microsoft are probably more or less fine with short term losses if it means in the long term they offboard millions or tens of millions of people out of the PlayStation ecosystem. They do not want Sony to be a permanent revenue middleman they have to deal with.

This deal secured Microsoft a dominant market share on PC, and a huge new beachhead of mobile. But on console, the long term goal is to overtake PlayStation as the dominant platform. It will not happen this generation, PlayStations current lead is too large. But they want the PS4 to have been “peak PlayStation”.

I think it’s highly plausible that 10th generation Microsoft gains and holds a permanent market share lead over Sony in the console space