I have been saying 2025 pretty much the entire time the Nintendo Switch has been out.
They said they would be going beyond the normal lifecycle on many occasions.
And the software to support that has to be lined up in advance.
Obviously there have been many delayed games, and hardware production nowadays being more constrained could push it further than that, but still too many variables to account for.
How will everything line up for launch games for first party and third party? Will chip shortages still be ongoing? What features will Nintendo try to add to the new hardware? Will that need more time for the tech to be ready for launch at a mass market price? etc., etc.
I imagine it will be like DS to 3DS, in that, it will be iterative, backwards compatible, and have some new features, but nothing that breaks the appeal to a large degree (a la Wii U).
I do wonder how inflation could effect things as well, it might stifle the console a bit if it has to push a higher price tag.
And then does Nintendo shift strategy (or marketing, or even software) a bit to try and justify that higher price???
So many variables, but I still think 2025 is the most likely year right now.