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VAMatt said:

I think the 8th gen consoles may get AAA support longer than we're used to for two primary reasons:

1) lots of people are going to have trouble getting the new generation systems for at least another year, it seems. So, there will still be a lot of active gamers on the last generation consoles for a while.

2) It just isn't hard to make the games work across all of the systems, since they're all basically just PCs now. Porting costs are low, in other words.

I agree that 8th gen consoles may get AAA support longer than we're used to, for the reasons you said and for other reasons besides.  However, my prediction is that Xbox One support will die out earlier than PS4 support.  I predict this because:

The PS4 outsold the One by about 2.3x, meaning there will likely be PS4s being regularly played for longer, and...

Xbox One (VCR) and Xbox One S are the hardest platforms to scale current-gen games down to, and...

The Series S allows Xbox owners to upgrade to current gen crazy easily/cheapily, and...

A developer can make just an Xbox Series version of a game and offer it to Xbox One owners through game streaming.  (I recognize that streaming isn't suitable for people with bad internet, or who live too far away from the nearest Xblade server farm, but it's good enough, for enough people, to get the developer "off the hook" for having to also make a version for a rapidly shrinking Xbox One market)

So that's the trend to watch for, IMO.