The Switch shipped 146.02M by 30.09.2024. LT sales expectations?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Dulfite said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

No we didn't.  Sales so far this year are about the same as last year.  If you compare only Q2 2020 to Q2 2021, then yeah 2021 is down, because 2020 sales were all about Animal Crossing, and that was the time period when Animal Crossing was really driving sales.  Nintendo's quarterly report said that Animal Crossing was 40% of all of their first party sales during Q2 of 2020!  In 2020 Switch sales really shot up, but the most amazing time of year was during Q2.  So if you only compare Q2 for this year and last year, then you are going to come to some pretty messed up conclusions. 

On the other hand, what games did Nintendo have for holiday 2020?  Nothing really.  They had Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity.  This year they are going to have Pokemon and a new Switch model.  Pokemon alone is enough to make sales up YoY.  Throw in a new model, and there should be no question that sales are going to be up this year.  

Aside from HW: AoC and a massive amount of AA and A level games, 2020 had the following popular games:

-Super Mario 3D All Stars (shipped over 9 million by 3/31/21)

-Doom Eternal (not sure how much this one sold)

-Clubhouse 51 (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Immortals Fenyx Rising (not sure how much this sold but Ubisoft was pleased publically with Switch sales)

-Paper Mario The Oragami King (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-MarioKart Live Circuit (over 1 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Ori and the Will of the Wisps (no clue what this sold)

-Ninjala (free, but very popular game)

-Xenoblade Chronicles 1 HD (over 1.5 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Darksiders Genesis (no clue what this sold)

-Pikmin 3 Delux (over 2 million shipped by 3/31/21)

I'm not certian off the top of my head which of these came out when, but these all drove hardware last year for somebody. Age of Calimity was not the only game that came out in 2020 that drove people to buy a Switch come holiday. There were plenty of games that came out that year that still seemed new that people bought in to play.

The Pokemon game coming out this year is extremely ridiculoud by the fans. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the worst selling remake to date because of it. I personally like the art style, but I have seen a lot more critisize it than praise it.

The OLED model that many complained about after it was released, and even moreso after Steam Deck was shown, is not something, I think, that will sell well. I think it will historically do worse than LITE, and far worse than the base model. Nintendo gamers that play on the go aren't interested in the best specs possible, and people that want the best visuals will play docked no matter what. The OLED fills a tiny niche in their wider market, it doesn't open up a huge opportunity in my opinion. Could I be wrong? Sure, but it is my opinion that Switch sales will be down Y/Y from fiscal 2020 by at least a few million consoles.

1) All of those games you mentioned put together sold about 1/2 of Animal Crossing's total.  The year 2020 was all about Animal Crossing when it came to sales.  Most of the other games hardly did anything except for the evergreens.

2) All of your other comments seem to be based off what people say on the internet.  The internet is the land of bullshit.  If the internet says one thing, then you should probably bet that the opposite will happen.  The internet complains about Pokemon Sw/Sh, and it's on track to be the second best selling title ever.  If they are complaining about OLED and BD/SP, then you should bet on both doing well.  The internet narrative has very little to do with sales reality.