Dulfite said:
I just can't agree with these numbers lol. We just got evidence that the Switch is already slowing down considerably compared to last year, and that will only continue moreso into the holidays and next year. There is no equivelence to the mega hitters from 2017-2020 coming out this year to really push momentum. Metroid Dread, Mario Party All Stars, SSHD, SMTV, none of those are Animal Crossing, Mariokart, or Smash. I don't think OLED is going to move crazy amounts, just like I didn't think LITE would either, especially with Steam Deck appealing to the truly hardcore spec nerds that don't mind missing out on first party titles (beforehand, these guys would probably have considered OLED as the best way to play third party games on the go, but that won't be the case anymore). PS4 will probably not hit 125 million (maybe not even 120 million) and everyone thought that was a massive success, yet you are practically expecting Switch to hit 150 mil + based on your post. That's like thinking a political party is going to win 67% of the vote in America lol. That is only going to set you, and anyone inspired by you, up for disappointment when realistic numbers are posted. It is not doing DS level numbers to achive 155 - 175 million units sold. The only way they could get even close to that is if they prolonged this generation in an unhealthy way. They aren't going to delay the Switch 2 generation (where they could get 15-25 million sales a year) just so they can prolong Switch 1 generation (and get 5-15 million sales a year). You don't grow as a company by milking a device when it starts to slow down, you grow by launching new devices that the market wants more. If they can sell more consoles by releasing Switch 2 than by continuing to sell increasingly outdated Switch 1's, they are absolutely going to do that. And software companies are going to push for new hardware more in the coming months and years, as they will also be developing for Series X/PS5. They had a hard time downsizing games to work on Switch from the PS4/XBO and those are weaksauce compared to PS5/SX, so the longer Switch stays out as the flagship Nintendo device the less AAA third party games Switch will get, which will drive hardware sales down further. I completely believe Switch 2 is coming 2023, a full 6 year life cycle after Switch 1. Switch 1 will sell PS4 levels, which is absolutely amazing, and Nintendo will hopefully continue to have that kind of success with Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called). |
Bold 1: While I also disagree with those numbers, last quarter the hybrid was still up yoy and the holiday quarter has a way better line up than last year, which is why I think it will be similar in sales or a bit bigger than last year.
Bold 2: The PS4's sales are why I think the Switch will definitely sell over 140M. It already had two years with bigger sales than in the PS4's biggest year and this year (and next year in my expectations) will be no different. While selling way less yearly the PS4 was on track to reach 130M before Sony cut it's legs.
Unless Furukawa's statement that the Switch will have a longer life and that it was in it's middle last year is nonesense I don't see it as a possibility that the Switch successor will launch before holiday 2023. March 2024 or holiday 2024 is what I see as likelier.
Point is, after a certain point the Switch started selling way above PS4 levels, it will end up way above that too if my predictions in my first post in this thread are anywhere close to what will happen.
