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Slownenberg on 08 August 2021
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Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

Nintendo looks like it will bomb and everyone speaks of doom. Nintendo looks to do great and people have such absurd expectations that when they aren't met will look like a disappointment. The fact that they are guaranteed to do 110 million should have everyone marveling considering where we were last gen, anything beyond that is icing on the cake.

Basically yes, but with the current momentum, keeping up with last year for so long, anything below 130M would be disappointing because it would need a premature death for that.

At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits.

Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible.

Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely.

160m is a very reasonable prediction.

170m is a reasonable prediction.

180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has another model planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen.

155m-175m is like 95% likelihood.