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Slownenberg on 08 August 2021
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Well, 150 million seems almost assured barring disaster. I voted 150-170 million.

It should be about 105 million end of this year. 2020 Calendar year it did about 27.37 million (28.83 was 2021 Fiscal Year). Half way through this calendar year it is about 220k units ahead of 2020, Q3 of this calendar year might put it tracking a bit behind last year, but the holiday season should be bigger with much bigger titles, new model, and not competing with the launch of two new systems, I could see it doing 27.5m to 28m this calendar year. What were the total numbers through last year, like 78 or 79 million? So Switch should end up this year at 105 or 106 million, let's say 105.

Next year will be a big year for major games. No doubt hardware sales will start to drop next year, let's say it still hits 22 million which shouldn't be too hard.

2023 we'll probably start to see price drops and the last round of major first party titles, let's say a drop to 18 million.

Say Switch gets a successor holiday 2024, which allows Switch to still sell like 12 million that year. That puts the Switch at 157 million (best selling system of all time) by end of 2024 just after its successor releases, and no doubt over the next few years in its retirement it'd easily pass 160 and probably get over 165 million. Even if successor comes out early like say Spring 2024 it'd still probably end up around 160 million. So I don't see any way it sells under 150 million. 170+ million could happen but only if Nintendo gets aggressive in its sales tactics (which they aren't known for doing), and like actually do lots of hardware and software price cuts and has a couple surprise big games planned late in Switch's life. So in the 160s seems very likely. And that's being slightly conservative, each year as outlined above could easily be a million or two higher than I'm estimating, so if successor launches holiday 2024 then finishing up a few years later at just over 170 is definitely possible.