The Switch shipped 139.36M by 31.12.2023. LT sales expectations?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Zippy6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Even after Nintendo releases the successor system, Switch will keep selling. The 3DS kept selling decently even after the Switch released, because it was still supported even after the Switch released.

1. They kept supporting the 3DS because the Switch wasn't viewed as a direct successor to it. They'll drop support for the Switch like a sack of bricks when the successor comes out, just as they dropped the wii/ds when 3ds/wiiu came out, and basically every other console they've made. Nintendo only focus on the latest system.

2. The Switch wasn't backwards compatible, if you wanted to play 3ds games you need a 3ds, the switch successor should be backwards compatible so that will damage Switch sales once it's replacement comes out.

3. There was a big difference between 3ds and Switch. You could pick up a 3ds model for $100 while the Switch was $300, they catered to different markets with their different price points. The price difference between Switch and it's successor will probably be much smaller. I don't see the Switch getting price cuts to make it a valid purchase over Switch 2. Just like the PS4 hasn't been cut in price and isn't worth bothering with now.

Those are my reasons that I don't personally expect high Switch sales after it's replacement is released.  With a Switch 2 on the market there will be zero reason to buy a Switch unless they price the older console aggressively, which they won't.

Now for my expectations, 130m I guess.

Incorrect.  The Switch is a successor to the 3DS and Wii U both.

They kept selling the 3DS, because they only had to support two systems during the transition, and that is easy for them to do.  Fun Fact: the NES got support even after the SNES released (and therefore kept selling), because Nintendo only had to support 3 systems at once, and so they still did it.  It's only when they are faced with supporting 4 systems at once do they pull the plug on the older systems immediately.  For example Gamecube, GBA, Wii and DS was too much for them to support all at once, so they Gamecube lost support immediately and the GBA got its life shortened as well.

When the Switch 2 comes, the original Switch will definitely get support, because Nintendo will only have 2 systems.  Also, the Switch is basically free money for them at this point, so it would be stupid to cancel support for it.  It will keep selling for years, even after the successor is released.  This is also ignoring the fact, that the 3DS actually had a system get down to $80 before they stopped making it.  Currently the cheapest Switch model is $200.  There is a whole lot of sales left to be had from bundles and price cuts.

Anyone predicting 130m at this point is on the extreme pessimistic side.  They see sales go down for a month or so without factoring in that people are waiting for the OLED model.  I am still expecting Switch sales to be up this year compared to 2020.  Switch sales during the holiday quarter of this year and going to blow away 2020 holiday sales.