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archbrix on 20 July 2021
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Otter said:
archbrix said:

@bolded:  People really need to take note of this.  Super Mario Bros 3 released five years after the NES launched and went on to become the console's biggest selling stand-alone game of all time - by far.  Unlike with the Wii, Nintendo seems to be doing right by the Switch and its potential to keep selling tons of software by not rushing out a successor.  Still plenty of games to be made for the Switch; especially when the console will still be shipping close to 20m units in 2023 with all of the options Nintendo still has left to make sure that happens.

Nothing is stopping a Switch game released in its 5th year becoming its best selling title. There isn't this binary where either Zelda BOTW2 sells 30m or Nintendo Launches Switch 2 in 2023....End-of-life software tends to perform worse but end of Life software which is on 2 platforms have better legs. Both Zelda games to break sales records for the franchise have been cross-gen. Miles Morales has remained in the UK top 10 for most of the year thanks to being cross-gen and launching alongside a new platform. PS4 software like TLOU2/Ghost/FFVII, still had a great year in 2020 despite the launch of a new platform during the Holiday. 

People are forcing a 2023 release vs 2024 into a make or break thing, its simply not. If one year makes sense, the other can't be far off

@Mandalore76 already explained why cross-gen Zelda made sense before, but I'll elaborate. 

Say that BOTW2 would be ready by holiday of 2022, but Nintendo decides to sit on the game until holiday of 2023 to coincide with the release of Switch 2.  This is something that would make sense if the Switch were a struggling console.  But just like Super Mario 3 didn't need cross-gen with a premature release of the SNES, BOTW2 would be better served to release in 2022 as intended, making the next entry in the series a full-on Switch 2 project for a 2026 release (for the 40th anniversary).  Nobody is saying that software for Switch will completely dry up once Switch 2 releases, just that it's unnecessary for Switch 2 to release that soon when it's in Nintendo's best interest to maximize profits and software output for the hit system they already have.

Nintendo repeatedly expressing interest in giving the Switch a longer life span coupled with the Switch's sales momentum make a 2023 holiday release for Switch 2 unlikely, despite the fact that it's only a few months prior to March of 2024.  It's certainly not impossible that it could happen, but at this point, I think a March 2025 release for Switch 2 is just as likely as 2023.