It's got to be 2021. This year is already tracking ahead of 2020, which means it is doing better than the Animal Crossing + beginning of COVID lockdown months. With a new hardware model + Pokemon, Switch is definitely going to be higher this year. At the same time, the momentum this year is only slightly higher. Switch's sales growth was really rocketing up in 2019 and especially 2020. It's not doing that this year, so I think this is going to be the peak year.
Next year will be down slightly, but it will still be high (probably 25m+) due to a bunch of solid software releases. That is why anyone saying Switch 2 is coming in 2023 just has no clue. Imagine Nintendo saying this in 2022. "Hey we are having one of the best sales years that any system has ever had. Why don't we kill off this goose that is laying all of these golden eggs...." Nope. That ain't happening. So while I think 2021 will be Switch's peak year, I think every year 2022 and on will only have mild drops in sales giving the Switch a very long life.
Mostly agreed. Nintendo could keep Switch going to like 2026 or so if they wanted to. But I suspect they will sort of cut it off, not in 2023 obviously, but perhaps launch Switch 2 in holiday 2024. I'm thinking Nintendo might not even bother ever discounted the Switch and Switch Lite. Didn't they not really ever even drop the Wii U's price despite the terrible sales, or maybe dropped it $50? Nintendo doesn't seem to like to make business moves to sell more units, they just like to keep prices high and let everyone buy at those prices then move on to the next system.
Switch OLED will allow them to discontinue the original model and drop OLED to $300 eventually and keep that price for a good long while. They COULD drop the prices of the systems in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 and keep the thing selling and maybe even launch that rumored but false 4k upgrade model to also keep a higher price point in there and keep excitement for the Switch going well in to the middle of the decade. But I see them not bothering much in the way of price cuts on anything and just allowing the market to saturate at the initial launch prices and readying Switch 2 by end of 2024. That way they have a new system on the market just after Switch sales start dropping below 20mil a year (I figure Switch will drop under 20mil in 2024, with or without a successor launch. Could happen in 2023 but Switch might be just over 20mil in '23) so that they don't have any low hardware years since they don't have a second system to back things up.