Switch peak year

[Agente42]

noshten said:

Going with 2022 personally, Breath of the Wild sequel, Splatoon 3, a Open World Pokemon game topped off by growing Japanese Third Party support ensures another year of growth in Japan and Asia. This year feels like it's a AA year for Nintendo - they have a lot of games coming out but Pokemon Remakes and Bowser's Fury are set to be their biggest 1st and 2nd party games - Monster Hunter Rise is looking like it will cross 10 million units but we are only now starting to see bigger Japanese third party projects land on the system. Next year support from third parties in Japan will further accelerate ensuring that along with the big hitters we have a lot more projects that are going to be targeting Switch as the lead system.

This cannot be understated, as Japanese third party games are what is going to be fueling growth in East Asia which is the biggest growth engine for Nintendo since the official China launch in December 2019, they've also entered a couple of smaller markets recently like Thailand. There is also other developing markets in South and Central America, Middle East, Eastern Europe where in the past Nintendo lacked the needed local partners, marketing or supply chain to compete. Now with Youtube, Twitter, FB and other social media being so important in WW marketing and overall globalization that's taken place since the Wii/DS heights Nintendo is better positioned to see growth in these markets. The main obstacle is the price of Nintendo's own games but this will be offset by Major Third Parties and Indies who are happy to sell their catalog titles at a fraction of their launch price digitally.

Another factor is the overall supply problems that have came into effect due to COVID, this are slowly getting resolved and the Switch wasn't impacted half as much as PS5/XSX but still it probably didn't allow them to scale to the level that they could have done in 2020 and 2021. Sure COVID pushed video gaming to new heights but at the same time it limited how much hardware you could produce and made Nintendo diversify their supply chain by having part of their production move to Vietnam. Maybe next year things will normalize and it will allow them to further scale production.

Finally we have things like OLED Switch and Price-cuts to think about, at the moment the current model is probably far cheaper to make compared to the launch due to economy of scale; thus if Nintendo sees demand slowing down they would be able to cut the price considerably for the Lite, Hybrid and possibly OLED next year - as no doubt even OLED will be sold at a profit at launch to gauge demand at its $350 price.

agreed.